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Trader Overview
Hook that hits: btc-lu (0xf693bac0b9a42c5df41792673020ba7385ffe96c) Polymarket trader turned $87k into $324k in pure PnL — 367% ROI on deposits, 10 trades per day, and one single Bitcoin micro bet that printed $124k in 15 minutes flat.
The profile reads like a noise farmer. Rank 363 on Polymarket leaderboard, 205 total trades across 151 markets, averaging $340 per entry at 0.31 odds. That buy-sell ratio of 45.5 screams one thing: he's not holding bags. He's scalping. Short-dated Bitcoin volatility markets, mostly. The win rate sits at 55.8% — barely better than a coin flip — but volume and speed compensate hard. When you're grinding 10 trades daily on tight markets, compounding on edge beats high-conviction conviction every time.
The edge here is pure frequency plus micro-event arbitrage. That best trade tells the whole story: Bitcoin Up or Down January 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET window. A 15-minute candle. He caught $124k on a single micro trade. His worst loss was only $8.8k. This isn't luck; this is pattern recognition on noise. Most Polymarket traders chase headlines and broad market bets. btc-lu hunts the 5-minute inefficiencies nobody else bothers with. High-frequency on Polymarket prediction markets isn't common, but when it works, it extracts money from every retail degen who thinks a 2-hour Bitcoin market is "information-efficient."
Risk level flagged as high, and the math backs it: 85 open positions right now, maximum single win of $124k paired with a max single loss of $8.8k. That 14:1 win-to-loss ratio protects his portfolio, but it also means he's sizing bets across dozens of small positions simultaneously. One bad day of correlation could hurt. The net transfers show $323k withdrawn — he's taking profits. Smart. Not everyone who hits 367% ROI has the discipline to cash out instead of HODL-ing into a correction.
Current status: still active, 85 live positions, hunting micro volatility. The Polymarket strategy here isn't rocket science — it's execution and timing at scale. Not everyone survives 10 trades daily without blowing up, but btc-lu's P&L suggests he's found the rhythm.
whaleRisk: high