arsenelupin
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arsenelupin is a Polymarket wallet profile with $273 PnL, $332.6K total volume, a 40.0% win rate, and activity across 297 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
Somehow, a wallet with $27 net deposits has turned into a consistent daily earner running 10.4 trades per day. Meet arsenelupin: rank #135,275 on Polymarket with a $272.8 PnL, 4.98% ROI, 40% win rate, and 244 total trades across 297 markets.
This is a Polymarket trader who plays noise, not conviction. Low risk. High frequency. Small average trade size of $16.74. The full bio is empty — the wallet analytics tell the real story. arsenelupin makes 10.4 bets per day on geopolitical and event-driven noise, entering around $0.71 per share. The buy/sell ratio sits at 1.39, meaning they’re leaning slightly bullish but rarely hold large positions for long.
Proof of the method: best single trade was 131.48 on US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? (2026-04-30) — a pure binary edge. Worst was -104.54 on Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April? (2026-04-30) — shows the danger of tail risk in high-volume events.
The edge? Discipline. Most people bet big, lose big, and delete the app. arsenelupin farms small edges across 10+ micro-markets daily with a 40% win rate that still yields PnL because the average loss per bad trade ($104) is nearly matched by the average win ($131). That is math, not gut. Risk level is low, portfolio value sits at $98.88, and there are currently 11 open positions — all small bites.
Right now they have open positions — but do not call this a whale. This is a grinder. A Polymarket wallet analytics check shows a micro-trader who survives because they never overbet. Not everyone survives the drawdown from a $272.8 profit on a Strait of Hormuz trade at these volumes.
Track this Polymarket trader on Predicts.guru to see if the grind holds, or if you want to check your own wallet against similar data.
diversifiedRisk: low