Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

This market on Polymarket asks whether 80 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by May 31, 2026. The prediction market is tied directly to data from the IMF Portwatch portal, which tracks daily arrivals including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. If Portwatch reports a daily transit count of 80 or more ships on any date between the market’s creation and May 31, 2026, the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The event itself was created on Polymarket on April 29, 2026, and the specific question for 80 ships was created on the same day. As of this fast generation, the YES price for the selected market is 8.5 cents, and the NO price is 91.5 cents, giving an implied probability of about 8.5% that 80 ships will be recorded on a single day. The event runs from April 29, 2026, to May 31, 2026, and remains active. Total volume across the event sits at $442.2K, with $39.0K in liquidity. This Polymarket analytics page provides real-time data on the market odds, YES and NO prices, total volume, and available liquidity. When the on-page tables are fully loaded, you can check market movement over time, including price changes and spread details. For deeper holder analysis, the page includes top holders, whale activity, smart money signals, and fresh wallet concentration. However, in this fast SEO generation, specific holder data, whale concentration, smart money signals, fresh account risk, average entry prices, and profit and loss distributions are not included. For traders and analysts tracking global shipping metrics, this market offers a direct view into expectations around Strait of Hormuz traffic levels. Use the on-page analytics tables for a more detailed breakdown of who is holding each side and how positions have shifted. The resolution will rely entirely on IMF Portwatch data, with revisions considered only within the market timeframe, making the official source the final word. This AI-generated analysis is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. The site owner and author are not responsible for decisions, losses, or actions based on this text. Verify market data independently.