Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

For traders and analysts searching for Polymarket "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" odds, the current market shows a strong belief that the situation will not normalize by the deadline. The YES price sits at 6.5 cents, implying just a 6.5% probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches 60 or above by May 31, 2026. Conversely, the NO price is 93.5 cents, indicating a 93.5% implied probability that traffic remains below that threshold through the end of May. This prediction market tracks a specific, data-driven question: will the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal or exceed 60 on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026? The event is categorized under maritime and geopolitical risk, and it covers container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. The market was created on Polymarket on March 31, 2026, with the event starting on the same day and running until the end date of May 31, 2026. The market is currently active and unresolved, awaiting official IMF Portwatch data. The total volume traded on this market has reached $13.6 million, with available liquidity of $635.8K, making it a substantial market for analysis. On this page, users can track the current odds by observing the YES and NO price movements, monitor volume and liquidity changes, and view price or market movement over time. The analytics tables will eventually display top holders, whale activity, and smart money signals, but these specific metrics are not included in this initial fast SEO generation. Additionally, wallet age concentration, average entry prices, and PnL distribution data are also unavailable in this pre-rendered overview. Because detailed holder data, smart money signals, and wallet concentration metrics are not part of this fast page generation, traders should rely on the on-page analytics tables once loaded for deeper wallet-level and position-level analysis. The order book and spread dynamics will also provide real-time insight into market depth. For now, the primary takeaway is a market heavily skewed toward a NO resolution, with over $13.6 million in volume supporting that implied probability. This AI-generated analysis is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. The site owner and author are not responsible for decisions, losses, or actions based on this text. Verify market data independently.