AML
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AML is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$753.3K PnL, $9.7M total volume, a 42.9% win rate, and activity across 33 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
AML Polymarket Trader: How a $2.2M Whale Got Demolished in 15 Trades
AML [0xfd22b8843ae03a33a8a4c5e39ef1e5ff33ebad91] dumped $2.24M into Polymarket across 15 trades and walked away with negative $19K — a brutal -17.72% ROI that reads like the inverse of every "life changing gains" thread you see on timeline.
This Polymarket whale trader operates at pure scale. Average ticket size sits at $33.8K per trade. Portfolio holds $1.7M across 5 open positions while 9 closed trades sit in the rearview. Win rate clocks 33% — coin flip odds dressed up in seriousness. The trader type screams discipline-free: 29:1 buy-to-sell ratio means AML talks themselves into holds like they're manifesting luck. When Polymarket wallet analytics surface this kind of imbalance, it usually means panic, hope, or both.
The best trade landed $28.4K on UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.. Clean execution, nailed the market direction, took the win. Then came the worst trade: UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev torched -$200.1K in a single bleed. One bad conviction destroys ten good ones. That single loss represents 67% of total PnL underwater right there.
The edge here? There isn't one. Polymarket leaderboard positioning ranks 2.3M out of millions — effectively zero rank. This trader type walks into prediction markets thinking volume solves uncertainty. 0.1 trades per day suggests sporadic conviction, not systematic edge. Check Polymarket wallet analytics and you see the truth: high deposits, minimal withdrawals ($145K pulled vs. $2.24M in), holdings bleeding into open positions with zero exit discipline. The buy-sell ratio alone signals someone who catches falling knives hoping they'll bounce.
Current state: still holding 5 open positions with $1.7M at stake. Underwater on the year, not liquidated yet, but the portfolio math doesn't lie — deposits dwarf withdrawals by 15x. Risk level rated medium only because they haven't blown the whole stack. One more $200K loser and AML slides from "underwater whale" to "cautionary tale."
This is what happens when capital meets no thesis. You can track AML's next moves on Predicts.guru or run a Polymarket wallet checker to watch the experiment continue.
whaleRisk: medium