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Trader Overview
kekweis Polymarket trader turned $1.7K into -$66.79 ROI across 33 trades in esports betting — profitable on paper (65% win rate), absolutely destroyed in practice.
kekweis is a low-risk conservative Polymarket trader ranked 52802, specializing in esports (Dota 2 dominates the playbook). The numbers scream internal contradiction: 65.38% win rate with $1.597K total PnL looks clean until you see the -66.79% ROI and $260 current portfolio. Started with $1.727K in deposits, now holding $260.71. The math doesn't lie — you can win most bets and still lose money if sizing and position management collapse.
The strategy is textbook esports noise farming. Dota 2 matches, especially regional playoffs like Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs, are high-variance prediction markets where oddsmakers struggle. kekweis won the best trade (+$732.64 on Liquid vs South America Rejects) but got smashed on the worst trade (-$559.99 on Liquid vs BetBoom Team) — same team, different opponent, zero edge protection. Average trade size sits at $338, suggesting no kelly criterion discipline.
Here's the brutal divergence: 65% win rate should print money. Instead, this Polymarket trader is down two-thirds of initial capital. Buy-sell ratio of 1.077 shows slight market bias (buying pressure), but averaging into losers compounds decay. The issue isn't prediction accuracy — it's risk management. One big loss ($559.99) nearly wipes eight average wins ($338 × 8 = $2.7K theoretical profit, minus actual $260 remaining). Low risk level classification doesn't match the damage.
Currently holding 7 open positions on a $260 bankroll after 33 trades over ~330 days (0.1 trades per day). The account is bleeding slow. Portfolio value suggests scaling down hard after realizing the edge trap: high win rate without proper position sizing is just slow bankruptcy with extra steps. Not everyone survives the drawdown, and kekweis is mid-collapse.
Track this wallet on Predicts.guru or check other top Polymarket traders to see how real prediction market analytics separate survivors from cautionary tales.
conservativeRisk: low