liuyanyan12345678
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liuyanyan12345678 is a Polymarket wallet profile with $55 PnL, $1.2K total volume, a 31.6% win rate, and activity across 35 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as high and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
liuyanyan12345678 (0xf98d2a96c96feee196bdbf018aa60a7c7434b1ee) Polymarket trader turned Shanghai weather almanac into a $55 gain by picking one micro-accurate temperature prediction while whiffing 68% of everything else.
This is a diversified trader ranked 244,802 operating on pure volume — 36 total trades across 35 different markets, averaging 3 trades daily since inception. The wallet started small. $55.2 PnL on $1.2K total volume = 4.53% ROI. That's not whale math. That's grinding. Win rate sits at 31.6%, which means two out of three bets eat dust. But here's the twist: when liuyanyan12345678 wins, it sticks. The best trade pulled $46.69 on Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27?. One single prediction carried the entire edge.
The strategy reads like chaos disguised as diversification. 2.87:1 buy-to-sell ratio means they're mostly going long, rotating through 35 separate markets without apparent thesis. Markets traded count suggests spray-and-pray across weather, sports, crypto, politics — wherever the limit order book has liquidity. Average entry at $0.216 tells you they're chasing underpriced tails or already-losing positions (a sign of averaging down when bleeding). Worst trade lost $2.81, which is tiny, but the portfolio discipline isn't there. 16 open positions right now with only $27.42 remaining in the wallet. This wallet is all-in on conviction or running on fumes.
The real edge is accidental: hyperspecificity in weather prediction. One Shanghai temperature call carried the entire PnL. A Polymarket whale this isn't. What you're watching is a degen who found one narrow alpha (maybe local weather data access, maybe just sick luck on March 27) and is now chasing that lightning again across 35 markets. High risk assigned correctly — the drawdown window is wide, exit liquidity is nonexistent, and $55.2 profit rate means the next 10 trades could wipe the gain.
Currently holding 16 open bets with nearly zero cash buffer. If even three of those flip wrong, the wallet goes red. This is the Polymarket win rate vs Polymarket wallet reality check: one $46 win doesn't survive a rotation into 20 new bets. Check this Polymarket trader on Predicts.guru to see which markets are next.
diversifiedRisk: high