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-Ciguli- is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$107 PnL, $40.1K total volume, a 75.6% win rate, and activity across 1315 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
-Ciguli- (0xdbe1d397f88ee2382753c9f6c4819a176c6d608d) is a Polymarket trader who crushed 75.6% win rate across 1,513 trades while somehow managing to lose $106.65 on the whole thing — the definition of "how are you this disciplined and still red."
The setup looks textbook conservative. Rank 2,278,118 on Polymarket leaderboard with 1,315 markets touched, averaging 23.2 trades per day and $9.17 per position. Low risk tolerance baked into the DNA. But here's where it breaks: a trader executing 1,513 trades with three-quarter hit rate should be printing money, not bleeding. -Ciguli- hit a max single win of $99.21 on Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET and got clipped for -$45.72 on the other side the same day — the downside friction is real.
The edge here isn't one. This is noise collection that looks disciplined on the surface: high-frequency micro-trades on ultra-liquid markets (Bitcoin tickers, binary chop), catch the 15-minute swings, rinse repeat 23 times daily. Win rate stays high because you're trading momentum in tight bands where the math favors small winners. But -Ciguli- is also holding 362 open positions against only 1,151 closed, which means the portfolio is bloated with micro-positions rotting slowly. Average entry price 0.887 tells you he's chasing mid-range probabilities — no edge, just variance management. The buy/sell ratio of 4.12 shows heavy long bias into noise.
Current portfolio sits at $8,574.48 but the -0.27% ROI on $40K volume means every trade after the first is fighting drag. Red trader despite green win rate signals one brutal truth: size management and position quality matter infinitely more than hit rate. You can win 75% of 1,513 micro-trades and still get destroyed by three or four times the vig in fees and slippage. This is the trap retail hits hard — more trades feels like skill; it's actually just more friction.
The real risk? This wallet shows zero balance in USDC, meaning all capital is trapped in open positions. Not everyone survives the unwind when micro-positions start correlating or liquidity dries up.
Check this wallet on Predicts.guru or track other Polymarket whale wallets to see how different edge actually looks versus high-frequency noise grinding.
conservativeRisk: low