arsanal
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arsanal is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$12 PnL, $5.5K total volume, a 70.4% win rate, and activity across 513 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
arsanal (0xd68bcf03d3f2fbed261af63723686b6cb39ede91) is a Polymarket trader sitting at rank 579,153 with a 70.4% win rate across 411 trades — but is somehow underwater -4.14% ROI on $10k deposits, the kind of math that makes you squint.
This is conservative trader energy at its worst. High accuracy (70.4% win rate on Polymarket) paired with tiny bet sizing ($1.31 average) means arsanal nails direction constantly but leaves money on the table. Opened the wallet, expected a breakout story, saw pure noise collection instead. 403 different markets touched in roughly 100 days (4.1 trades per day) screams portfolio inflation without conviction. The strategy reads like: grind micro-positions across every Prediction Market event that moves, trust the math, pray volume compounds it.
Best trade pulled $11 on the Elon Musk # tweets December 9 - December 16, 2025? market. Worst trade bled -$5.90 on earnings prediction. That's the spread right there: win $11, lose $6, repeat 411 times, net -$12.4 PnL. The edge that isn't an edge.
The real risk living in this profile: survivorship bias masquerading as skill. 71% accuracy feels like dominance until you realize tiny position sizing and bet-spread inflation kills expected value. Every Polymarket whale story you read started somewhere, but arsanal shows the trap — you can be right 7 out of 10 times and still go broke if the 3 losses hit harder than the 7 wins pay. Four open positions now, portfolio value sitting at $6.47. The Polymarket leaderboard won't remember this grind. Not everyone survives the drawdown, and this trader is already -4% despite hitting more than they miss.
conservativeRisk: low