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Sunshine.Smile is a Polymarket wallet profile with $136.9K PnL, $4.8M total volume, a 59.2% win rate, and activity across 1826 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
Sunshine.Smile (0xd3b034d7bfb2473fb252d0414646d9786bac329e) Polymarket trader deposits $8,066 and turns it into $15,665 PnL in pure esports noise — except the math breaks: negative 24.93% ROI, 504 total trades grinding a 64% win rate that can't escape red.
Meet Sunshine.Smile, rank 5926 on the Polymarket leaderboard. Conservative trader, esports specialist, 500 markets touched in what looks like a scatter approach. The profile screams volume over conviction: 12.7 trades per day, $233 average bet size, 10.7x buy-to-sell ratio that hints at position recycling or panic hedging. Bio empty. Wallet full of noise.
The edge hack here is pure activity — hit enough esports markets and some stick. Best trade, Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage, landed $3,142 profit. Worst trade on LoL, LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs, cost $2,170. The swings are tight relative to bet size, which tracks the conservative label, but 54 open positions suggest exposure spread so thin that edge becomes invisible.
Here's where it breaks: 64.44% win rate sounds elite on Polymarket. But with average trade size at $233 and negative 24.93% ROI on total deposits, the math says winners are smaller than losers. The best-to-worst trade spread ($3,142 gain vs $2,170 loss) is close, meaning even the outliers don't compensate. Polymarket prediction market data shows this is the trap — high win rate doesn't mean alpha when position sizing is inverted.
This is the Polymarket whale that isn't. Net deposits of $5,066 (after $3,000 withdrawal), current portfolio at $3,056. The trader is underwater and holding. 450 closed positions, 54 still open — capital tied in low-conviction bets across esports markets. Daily rate looks like active grinding without a thesis, collecting small wins against bigger losses.
The risk: this Polymarket trader has been at it consistently but the trajectory is flat-to-down. $15.6K PnL that looks good until you see the deposited $8,066 and realize $15K profit minus fees and slippage probably means the wallet is bleeding. Not everyone survives the stretch where volume meets math.
whaleRisk: medium