dragonflyy
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dragonflyy is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$285.0K PnL, $13.0M total volume, a 55.1% win rate, and activity across 350 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
dragonflyy (0xcf119e969f31de9653a58cb3dc213b485cd48399) started with $325k in deposits, ran 341 trades across 350 markets, and somehow turned it into negative $238k — the kind of Polymarket wallet that makes you scroll twice to confirm you're reading the numbers right.
dragonflyy is a medium-risk whale trader ranked 2436254 who specializes in NBA prediction markets, posting a 55.1% win rate while bleeding -95.91% ROI. That's the brutal math: deposit $325k, withdraw $13k, hold $821 in portfolio value. The Polymarket leaderboard doesn't celebrate this rank, but the dataset does — it's a masterclass in how win rate means nothing without position sizing discipline.
The strategy looks clean on paper. Averaging 1.6 trades per day across 326 different markets, dragonflyy chases breadth over depth — classic noise-farming approach where you think volume and diversity hedge risk. Buy-to-sell ratio of 3.5x suggests heavy long bias, averaging $3,280 per entry at 0.549 mid-price. Then reality hits: best single win was $40,744 on the Spurs vs. Thunder (2025-12-25). Worst single loss was negative $70,726 on the Timberwolves vs. Hawks (2025-12-31). One bad trade wiped gains from five good ones.
Here's where dragonflyy fails the prediction market analytics test: winning 54% of 341 trades should print money. Instead, asymmetric loss sizes ate the whole stack. The max single loss is 73% larger than the max single win. That's not unlucky — that's broken risk management. Polymarket wallet checkers see this pattern constantly: retail chases headlines, sizes bigger into losing conviction, panic sells winners. dragonflyy's 91 open positions suggest someone trying to recover by betting more, not less.
Currently holding $821 in a portfolio that once had breathing room. The account is technically alive but functionally dead. Not everyone survives the drawdown, and this wallet is proof that Polymarket leaderboards hide the bodies. Check dragonflyy's full trading history on Predicts.guru to see exactly where the discipline broke.
whaleRisk: medium