portfolio
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portfolio is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$340 PnL, $17.0K total volume, a 83.1% win rate, and activity across 68 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
portfolio (0xcd2974619b26a063467fb98a19048b6623fe1332) Polymarket trader sits at an 83.1% win rate with -$340.2 PnL across 69 trades — the kind of contrarian nightmare that haunts prediction market analytics: winning most bets, still underwater.
This is pure discipline wrapped in paradox. Portfolio runs conservative Polymarket strategy, averaging $67 per trade with only 0.2 trades daily. Across 68 different markets, the wallet shows textbook risk management — low volatility positioning, careful sizing, the kind of trader who reads every word before clicking. Yet the math doesn't cooperate. Deposited $1,063, withdrew $580, currently sitting on $144 portfolio value. That's -31.87% ROI on deposits, which is the thing nobody mentions about high win rates: sometimes you're just betting small winners and absorbing massive losses.
The pattern: 66 closed positions including a $66 win on Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? but crushed by a $340.2 loss on Bitcoin above _ on December 26?. That's the real edge here — or lack thereof. Win 83 out of 100 times but get the size wrong on the 17 you lose, and you're a Polymarket whale wallet that looks bankrupt to anyone tracking PnL. Three open positions remain, $144 actual balance, net inflows of $483 total. This Polymarket trader is essentially playing with house money at this point.
The contrarian angle cuts deep: portfolio embodies the discipline trap. Conservative trader type, low risk level, textbook Polymarket wallet analytics would flag this as "skilled," yet the numbers scream "precision that doesn't predict." High buy/sell ratio (4.47x) suggests conviction in positions, but conviction divorced from outcome is just expensive belief. The edge isn't there — it's been bled out in small cuts across 68 different markets.
Currently holding 3 live positions with next to nothing left to lose. Worth checking this wallet on Predicts.guru or similar Polymarket leaderboard tools if you want to see how discipline alone can't save you from prediction market gravity.
conservativeRisk: low