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Trader Overview
ACEE123 on Polymarket took a 71k one-trade monster win and somehow still sits down 28k lifetime — the poster child for why high win rate doesn't mean high win account.
ACEE123 (0xcc8f0e3bd33b98eb19a0c122397b6ce69cffa7bb) is a mid-tier Polymarket whale who's run 593 trades across 533 different markets, posting a 78.8% win rate that looks pristine until you see the balance sheet. Rank 2.2M. Trader type flagged as whale. Risk level low.
The edge hack is obvious on paper: hit 79% of trades, volume $10.5M, 2.9 trades per day. ACEE123 moves like a noise collector — spreads bets across 533 markets, catches small edges constantly, compounds winners. The math works until one position blows you up. Best trade scored 71k on Cubs vs. Brewers (2025-10-07). Worst trade nuked 77.8k on Pelicans vs. Spurs. That's the trap: single-loss magnitude eclipsed single-win size by 6.8k, and no win rate survives a 78k drawdown unscathed.
The data is brutal. Started with $402k in deposits, burned through to $144.5k net transfers, sitting at 66.8k portfolio value today. ROI negative 19.32%. That's $257k in withdrawals — money leaving the wallet faster than wins arrive. Average trade size 4.3k, entry price 0.90 (buying deep in the order book, fighting slippage). Buy-sell ratio 6.3 means ACEE123 holds way more longs than shorts — directional drift in a sideways market kills the thesis.
What separates this from pure degen is discipline: low risk rating, only 8 open positions (almost all closed out), consistent daily volume. The problem isn't execution — it's position sizing against tail risk. Win 79% of small bets, lose 1 big bet, and arithmetic just breaks. ACEE123 survived 585 closed positions, which is respect-worthy. Most retail never see 600 trades alive. But the Polymarket leaderboard doesn't reward survived — it rewards PnL, and negative 19k on $402k deposits is a 5-figure tax on conviction.
Current move: eight open positions, slow burn mode. Not blowing up, not winning. The evolution ACEE123 needed was position sizing discipline before month five — now it's damage control, trying to arbitrage back to flat.
whaleRisk: low