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Trader Overview
DavidTrezeguet (0xc88eb9ab98663254bff489c515f39f23b76bf3e1) Polymarket trader deposited $1.14M, lost $169K, and somehow keeps grinding across 345 markets with a 66.75% win rate — the math doesn't work, and that's exactly the problem.
DavidTrezeguet is a whale-tier Polymarket trader ranked 2,168,607 who's been the ultimate contrarian case study: high accuracy, total portfolio wreckage. 541 trades across 345 different markets. 66.75% win rate. Negative $169K PnL on $1.14M deposited. The profile screams "skill without discipline."
The edge hack here is volume-as-cover. DavidTrezeguet fires 1.5 trades per day across sprawling market coverage, which statistically should print money at 66.75% accuracy. Instead, the $7.7K average trade size and 3.57x buy-to-sell ratio expose the real leak: position sizing bleed. He's winning two-thirds of bets but sizing into conviction trades that evaporate conviction on drawdown. One best trade crushes it ($154.2K on Presidential Election Winner 2024), but one worst trade deletes it ($239.8K loss on Popular Vote Winner 2024). That's election-market gamma: binary outcomes, size mismanagement, Polymarket PnL swings that make technical skill irrelevant.
The Polymarket strategy isn't broken. The execution is. $53.4M total volume traded tells you DavidTrezeguet has liquidity and conviction. 129 open positions right now signals he's still active, still believing the win rate will eventually exceed the losses. But the ROI sits at -46.09% — he's down nearly half the deposit despite winning two-thirds of his Polymarket trades. That gap between win rate and return is the loudest whisper in prediction markets: you can be right 7 times out of 10 and still go broke if position 1 costs 3x the sum of your 6 wins.
Current state: $179.2K portfolio value remaining, 129 open positions, trading the noise across 345 markets. The real risk level isn't "low" just because he says it — it's the structural risk of a whale who found technical skill but never learned bet sizing. Not everyone survives the next drawdown. DavidTrezeguet's next chapter on the Polymarket leaderboard depends entirely on whether he cuts position size or repeats the pattern. Data suggests he repeats.
whaleRisk: low