arzam2004
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arzam2004 is a Polymarket wallet profile with $17.1K PnL, $163.0K total volume, a 72.3% win rate, and activity across 61 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
One wallet that turned $37K in deposits into $17K in Polymarket PnL — but still can't break even on ROI. Meet arzam2004 Polymarket trader — rank #9065, a "conservative" label that hides a 72.3% win rate and the kind of single-trade swings that would make most degens puke.
Arzam2004 is a low-frequency, high-conviction sports bettor. Only 51 trades, 61 markets traded, 0.1 trades per day. This isn't a bot or a noise farm. This is a guy who stares at one market for days, then pulls the trigger. The edge? He buys low-probability underdogs early — average entry price sits at $0.62, meaning he's shopping for mispriced favorites and catching value before the crowd moves. And it works: 72.3% win rate with a buy/sell ratio of 9.6 — he rarely flips; he holds until resolution.
Proof is in the pain. His best trade: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds for +$5,744. His worst: Rockets vs. Bulls for -$7,700. That's a $13K swing between two baseball and basketball outcomes. This is what a 72.3% win rate looks like — not smooth compounding, but a few massive wins paying for a few massive misses. The math is brutal: 51 trades, $163K total volume, yet ROI sits at -36%. He's profitable on PnL but the deposits ($37K) are bigger than the exits.
What separates arzam2004 from 99% of sports degens? Discipline on position sizing — average trade is $59, not $5K. He's not chasing headlines; he's grinding edges in niche sports markets where Polymarket whale analytics show sharper odds than retail. But here's the skepticism: 72.3% win rate means nothing if the losses are 30% bigger than the wins. This trader survives on variance, not edge. One bad week of NBA unders could wipe the entire book.
Currently holding 1 open position with $2.5K in portfolio value. Net transfers positive at $15.9K, so he's not a depositor — he's a local. But realism check: not everyone survives the drawdown, and the -36% ROI on deposits says the house still wins.
Track this wallet's next move on Predicts.guru to see if the specialist can flip the ROI, or if the variance finally catches up.
conservativeRisk: medium