LiamLegume
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LiamLegume is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$3 PnL, $263 total volume, a 89.6% win rate, and activity across 115 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
LiamLegume (0xc46c6d869a4d70ece4e01917246a9c558b6a0477) Polymarket trader burned $9.99 in, somehow stayed at 89.6% win rate, and still somehow negative $3.01 — the most confusing Polymarket wallet in existence.
LiamLegume is a conservative micro-trader grinding ultra-short prediction market bursts. Rank 1.2M deep, 115 total trades across 115 different markets, averaging $1.02 per position. The defining stat: 81.5 trades per day on micro 15-minute Bitcoin and XRP flip windows. This is not a person thinking about macro. This is a bot or a very dedicated noise farmer.
The core edge hack is counterintuitive — win rate doesn't matter when position sizing is that tight. LiamLegume scales into exactly the markets that ping fastest, treating Polymarket leaderboard churn like a liquidity arbitrage game. Best trade hit $1.22 on Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET, worst trade lost $1.00 on XRP the same morning 15 minutes later. Same session, opposite extremes — retail mistake thinking, or algorithm catching micro-inefficiencies? The volume spread ($263.15 total) and trade density suggest someone or something running on a timer, not conviction.
Here's where it gets weird: 89.6% win rate on Polymarket typically means you're picking blowout certainties or you're surviving selection bias hard. LiamLegume's average entry price sits at 0.93 — buying heavy into the underdog side, then exiting at 0.98 or higher for tiny clips. Conservative risk level, low single-loss caps ($0.99 max loss per trade), buy/sell ratio of 1.26 — this smells like disciplined grid-stacking, not luck.
But the ROI tells the truth: negative 68.56% on $9.99 deposits means position sizing discipline evaporated fast. Nine open positions remain, portfolio value at $3.14. This is the classic prediction market analytics failure: a strategy that looks solid in isolation (high win rate, tight stops, consistent volume) breaks down when you're playing 81 rounds a day against your own slippage and fee bleed.
Current holdings scattered across micro windows. Risk level stays low by definition, but at this trade velocity, one bad 15-minute window could spiral. Not everyone survives the drawdown when you're compounding 81 times daily.
Check this wallet on Predicts.guru to track the daily grind and see if the win rate holds when capital dries up.
conservativeRisk: low