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Trader Overview
Shuumai Polymarket trader: dropped $42k, watched it bleed to $29k, still swinging $7.7k per trade with a 30% win rate that feels more like a slow leak than a strategy.
The wallet belongs to a low-risk Polymarket whale operating at rank 2177013, 25 total trades across 25 markets, averaging $7,689 per position. The data screams careful position sizing — max single loss sits at just $224 — but the PnL tells a different story: -$2,852.95 in total losses, -7.01% ROI on deposits. This is what happens when you bring discipline to a game where luck still runs the table.
Here's the edge hack: shuumai buys early (0.815 avg entry price), sits patient, and refuses to blow up on any single trade. That low-risk classification isn't luck. With 25 markets touched and only 5 open positions, this trader spreads conviction thin, which kills upside but preserves capital. The buy-sell ratio of 1.11 suggests slight accumulation bias — hold longer than you flip. Works great until the market disagrees with your thesis for weeks straight.
Best trade hit on Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK (+$3,490). Worst trade on NBA Champion (2025-06-23) (-$224). The spread between best and worst reveals the real risk: you nail one position sizing thesis and it doesn't matter against a 30% win rate. That's what the Polymarket leaderboard won't tell you — discipline doesn't always equal Polymarket PnL.
Current portfolio value sits at $29,101 on $42,198 deposited. This isn't a flash crash story. This is slow-motion sand through fingers: 0.3 trades per day, no FOMO, no revenge trading visible. The real question isn't whether shuumai can read markets — it's whether a 30% win rate Polymarket trader can survive the math long enough to stumble into an edge. Right now, the PnL suggests they're still in the tutorial mode of prediction markets, where risk management lets you live long enough to actually learn something. Not everyone does.
whaleRisk: low