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Trader Overview
illenial on Polymarket is a 73% win rate contrarian who turned $25k into negative $6.5k — the most brutal reminder that accuracy doesn't equal profit.
Conservative trader, rank 2.2M, 317 total trades across 307 markets. The numbers scream discipline: 6.1 trades per day, low risk positioning, $623 average entry size. But the wallet tells a different story. Despite winning nearly 3 out of 4 bets, illenial is down 26.46% ROI on deposits. This is what happens when you nail prediction but botch position sizing and exit timing.
The edge hack is noise arbitrage mixed with selective betting — buysellratio of 1.85 means illenial loads up on undervalued positions and holds longer than the average degen, waiting for crowd panic to shake out weak hands. Best trade pulled $2,954 on Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth - More Markets, solid hit. But worst trade wiped $2,119 on Suns vs. Spurs (2026-02-20) — the kind of drawdown that forces reckoning.
Here's the split personality haunting this Polymarket trader: illenial can pick winners (73.25% win rate is legit top-tier), but can't size them. Started with $25k, deposited another $10.9k in net transfers, yet portfolio sits at $4.3k with 58 open positions still bleeding. The contrarian's trap — being right on direction and wrong on conviction. Buy too much of the move, hold through the reversal, exit underwater. Prediction markets punish conviction differently than direction.
Current state: 58 open positions, $4.3k remaining, still trading at 6+ trades per day. This is either deep diamond-hands belief in the process or what happens when you refuse to stop and ask why your win rate doesn't match your P&L. With 307 markets touched and still bleeding, illenial is the cautionary tale for every Polymarket whale watching their accuracy destroy their bankroll — the prediction market version of being confidently wrong about risk.
conservativeRisk: low