charliealmanack
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charliealmanack is a Polymarket wallet profile with $163.9K PnL, $2.2M total volume, a 84.1% win rate, and activity across 137 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
charliealmanack (0xa3a39a3746dbd55f3a33ae38bd27ae2804c2c2f9) Polymarket trader turned $209k deposits into $163.9K PnL across 140 trades with an 84.1% win rate — except the math says he's down 31% on deposits, and that's the story nobody wants to see.
charliealmanack ranks 750 on the Polymarket leaderboard and qualifies as a whale, running 1.4 trades per day across 137 markets with an avg trade size of $6,872. He's got 52 open positions right now and 88 closed out. The type of trader who scales: buy-to-sell ratio sits at 6.4x, meaning he's accumulating more than he's dumping. Low risk designation on paper. But the portfolio value ($143k) versus deposits ($209k) tells the real story — he's underwater despite that shiny 84.1% win rate.
The edge hack here? Noise farming on geopolitical events. His best single trade made $39k on US strikes Iran by...? (2026-06-30), which is the kind of binary shock event where mispricings are thickest. He buys at 0.71 average entry — not chasing pumps, positioned before volatility spikes. Worst loss was only -$4,280 on the Gemini 3.0 release bet. That tight risk discipline on individual trades is legit. The problem? Position sizing. He's swinging $6-7k per trade in prediction markets where liquidity evaporates fast and exit slippage is brutal.
Win rate means nothing without PnL context. charliealmanack proves it: 84% accuracy across 140 trades should print money. Instead he's bled $45k in realized losses. This is what happens when your 84 winners are $1-3k each but your occasional loser hits $4-5k, or when you get stuck in positions that don't move and slowly lose to spreads. His trades-per-day velocity (1.4) shows discipline, not ADHD clicking. But the portfolio is bleeding — $100 withdrawn, net $209k in, stuck at $143k. The edge eroded.
Currently holding 52 open positions. That's diversified risk or scattered attention — hard to tell from the outside. The real Polymarket wallet analytics here: high win rate + negative ROI = sizing problem or liquidity crunch. Not everyone survives the drawdown.
Check charliealmanack and other top Polymarket traders on Predicts.guru to see how prediction market PnL actually breaks down — the 84.1% win rate without the hype.
whaleRisk: low