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paultudor is a Polymarket wallet profile with $34.0K PnL, $225.6K total volume, a 50.0% win rate, and activity across 22 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
One wallet that turned a $24.6k deposit into a $34k PnL in under two weeks by trading oil straits and geopolitics like a macro desk.
paultudor is a #4072 ranked, diversified trader — but ranked means less when you see the method. Bio empty — wallet full. 50% win rate across 17 trades on 22 markets, but that "mediocre" hit rate hides a +115% ROI. Opened the wallet, expected a YouTube degen, saw someone exit trades cleanly. 2.2 trades/day, medium risk label, portfolio now sitting at $53k. The buy/sell ratio of 3.86 screams aggressive position stacking on conviction.
His edge? Trading asymmetric geopolitical plays where the "no" side pays 90¢+ and he catches the mid-bucket. The $12k home run came from betting the Strait of Hormuz traffic would normalize by April 30, 2026 — a classic "war premium fade" that retail overpays for on the upside. He averaged into the no-side below 30¢ as headlines screamed. When the noise settled and ships kept moving, the YES side collapsed. Free money until you watch the drawdown — his worst trade was a -$673 loss on WTI hitting $70+ in May 2026. Not everyone survives that volatility. But the math works: one home run covers 18 small losses.
Currently, 11 positions open across 22 markets — heavy on oil and geopolitical resolution bets. This isn't a bot. This is a human reading risk premia and fading hysteria. The PnL is real, the deposit-to-portfolio ratio is tight, and the risk is measured. But 50% win rate on geopolitics means the next Hormuz drawdown could erase a month of gains. Not financial advice — just math.
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diversifiedRisk: medium