Tir-1
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Tir-1 is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$552.1K PnL, $5.3M total volume, a 38.7% win rate, and activity across 98 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
Tir-1 (0x95de701f84f0f0fc958736024c3040332829c9b2) is a Polymarket trader who deposited nearly $693K and torched $384K in losses — the brutal evolution of a whale learning prediction markets the hard way.
Name: Tir-1. Rank 2.6M on the Polymarket leaderboard. Classified as a whale by deposit size but behaving like a retail degen chasing volume. Spread $692K across 75 different markets, averaging $4,482 per trade over 77 total positions. The setup screams "serious capital, zero discipline."
Here's the edge hack that isn't working: spray and pray. Tir-1 trades constantly — 14.4 times per day — hunting noise in low-conviction markets. The buy-to-sell ratio sits at 6.9x, meaning this wallet holds positions way longer than it should, bleeding against the clock. Most Polymarket whales win by picking 2–3 theses and farming them. Tir-1 picks 75. That's not diversification. That's dilution.
The proof is in the wreckage. Win rate: 43.94%. That's below coin flip. Total PnL on Polymarket: negative $384,675. ROI sits at -83.23% against deposits. The best single trade netted $36,734 on Jets vs. Blue Jackets. The worst single loss? A catastrophic $117,874 bloodbath on Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München. That one trade erased three winning months. Still holding 4 open positions. Portfolio value: $116K. No withdrawals. All pain, zero exit.
The edge Tir-1 should have but doesn't: position sizing discipline. A proper Polymarket wallet checker looking at this profile sees a trader who entered with conviction capital but lost conviction fast. Instead of cutting losses and focusing, doubled down across markets. The trades-per-day metric of 14.4 suggests reactive trading, not strategic. High-conviction prediction market analytics demand thesis isolation. This wallet violates every rule.
Current state: Still swinging 11 open bets while sitting on unrealized pain. Risk level classified as low, but that's misleading — the damage is already done. This is what the evolution from whale to liquidation looks like. Portfolio bled from $692K deposits to $116K remaining in real time on Polymarket.
Track wallets like Tir-1 on Predicts.guru to see the difference between capital and edge — most traders confuse them until it's too late.
whaleRisk: medium