0x9565eae863239ef11f641999a6b2ced5fa0093ef
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0x9565eae863239ef11f641999a6b2ced5fa0093ef is a Polymarket wallet profile with $368 PnL, $7.2K total volume, a 70.4% win rate, and activity across 81 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
0x9565eae863239ef11f641999a6b2ced5fa0093ef Polymarket trader dumped $1,757 in deposits across 52 trades — hit a 70.4% win rate — and still somehow got absolutely demolished for $367.7 PnL and -56% ROI.
This is the poster child for why prediction markets humble even traders who get the calls right. The wallet is conservative-flagged, averaging $23.40 per trade, which sounds responsible until you realize he's firing 41 trades per day into geopolitical noise and airport reopenings. High-frequency chaos masquerading as discipline.
The data screams it: 70.4% win rate on Polymarket sounds like alpha. Then you check the math. Biggest win was $19.10 on the Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by...? market. Biggest loss was -$25.23 on Iran strikes Israel on...?. The asymmetry is brutal — wins cluster tight, losses punch through. That's not edge. That's getting lucky on frequency while the tail risks eat everything.
The core problem: buy-sell ratio of 3.65. He's buying dips obsessively, averaging entry at 0.775 probability, which means chasing already-moved markets and holding bags. Traders call this "catching knives." On 48 different markets, 31 still open, he's essentially underwater on most thesis-driven positions. The "conservative" tag is a lie his own metrics reject — 41 trades per day is algorithmic desperation, not risk management.
Here's the killer: $1,732 in net deposits, $741 portfolio value. He's down more than half. Not because he's wrong often — the win rate proves he reads signals okay — but because position sizing on a Polymarket prediction markets strategy against geopolitical volatility means even a 70.4% win rate gets erased by three or four "tail risk" Iran strikes or airport reopenings. The math doesn't forgive frequency when variance that extreme lives in your markets.
Current state: 31 open, likely bleeding slowly. This wallet is what happens when retail discovers Polymarket, finds a signal that works on coin flips, then scales it into the void thinking more trades = more wins. The prediction market leaderboard won't rank him — he's barely cracking rank 1.8M — but he's the warning label most degens ignore.
conservativeRisk: low