ckw
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ckw is a Polymarket wallet profile with $842.8K PnL, $75.2M total volume, a 55.6% win rate, and activity across 2290 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
ckw Polymarket trader turned $1.17M in deposits into $888K pure profit — and somehow still holding 0 open positions like the drawdown doesn't scare him.
Rank 127 whale, 2,301 trades across 2,095 different markets, 55.6% win rate. Three trades per day on average. The portfolio screams volume player: $74M total wagered, $6K average bet size, but here's the thing — he's down $870K net after withdrawals. Took out $2.04M while only putting in $1.17M. That's the trap most people miss when they see the $842.8K PnL number.
The edge looks like noise farming. ckw doesn't specialize — he swings at literally everything, from UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) to obscure soccer matches. His best single trade pulled $181K on UFC 323 fighting markets. His worst? Lost $175K on Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica. 75% ROI on deposits, 5.66 buy-to-sell ratio — he's betting more than he's closing, which tracks with someone treating prediction markets like a volume sports book.
What separates ckw from typical degens? Discipline at scale. Grinding three trades daily across thousands of markets without imploding takes mental stamina most won't touch. The 55.6% win rate isn't flashy, but it compounds when you're risk-managed enough to stay solvent. Entry price averaging 0.63 suggests he hunts mispriced degen markets where retail chases headlines and he collects. Medium risk level is realistic — he's not going all-in on single bets, he's using prediction market spreads like arbitrage fuel.
Current state: $16K portfolio value remaining, 0 open positions still cooking. That's the reality check — he's profitable on paper but holding illiquid positions in thin markets. One bad week on the prediction market leaderboard and the narrative flips hard. His Polymarket wallet checker shows someone who scaled successfully but now rides the tightrope between institutional discipline and degen addiction.
Track ckw on Predicts.guru to see if he can hold the edge or if the drawdown finally arrives.
whaleRisk: medium