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mooseborzoi is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$636.8K PnL, $27.2M total volume, a 46.9% win rate, and activity across 1263 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
mooseborzoi (0x84cfffc3f16dcc353094de30d4a45226eccd2f63) Polymarket trader threw $1.25M at prediction markets and lost $272K in one brutal lesson about position sizing and drawdown management.
Meet mooseborzoi: rank 2.6M on Polymarket, classified whale tier despite the underwater balance sheet. 826 total trades across 540 markets, mostly sports betting (basketball heavy based on trade history). Win rate sits at 45.8% — below coin flip odds. That's the first red flag.
The play: mooseborzoi scales hard into conviction bets. Avg trade size $135 on a $1.25M war chest sounds small until you see the $293K single win on Spurs vs. Trail Blazers (2026-04-25). Then you realize he's doubling down. The counterplay: one bad call cost him $201K on Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals (2026-05-03). No Kelly criterion. No bet sizing discipline. Pure conviction or pure ego.
The edge hack? There isn't one. mooseborzoi runs hot-cold. Buy-sell ratio of 2500x suggests he's buying way more than selling, which tracks with someone trying to catch falling knives instead of cutting losses. Current portfolio shows 425 open positions against only 401 closed — he's holding losers, not harvesting losses. Polymarket wallet analytics show this is classic addictive trading behavior: high volume ($9.3M total), low win rate, massive variance swings.
Reality check: mooseborzoi deposited $1.25M and withdrew only $100K. That's -59.6% ROI on deposits. The portfolio still shows $444K in remaining value, but with 425 open positions at avg entry 0.666... odds, most are underwater. The risk level flags as "low" in the data, but that's backwards — this wallet is maximum risk. Not everyone survives the drawdown. Polymarket whale status means big money, not edge.
Current state: still active, still adding to losing positions. 425 open markets means he's chasing recovery through volume. This is the most dangerous pattern in prediction market PnL: the comeback trade that turns a -$200K problem into a -$400K problem.
Track this wallet live on Predicts.guru's Polymarket leaderboard to watch how drawdown management separates top Polymarket traders from degens.
whaleRisk: low