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Trader Overview
HOOK
darkrider11 (0x82a1b239e7e0ff25a2ac12a20b59fd6b5f90e03a) Polymarket trader turned $1.17M into $312K profit in brutal chop — but that $793K single loss on Suns vs. Thunder (2025-12-11) is the kind of scar that separates survivors from liquidation stories.
IDENTITY
Rank #361 Polymarket whale. 75 total trades. 53.5% win rate. $312.9K PnL on $37.7M volume. Medium risk tolerance, 26.74% ROI on deposits. Two trades per day, averaging $77.8K per position. The type who runs real capital, not paper.
STRATEGY
darkrider11 hunts sports prediction markets — Clippers vs. Hawks, Suns vs. Thunder, the noise where sharp action fights crowd sentiment. Entry thesis is dead simple: position sizing ($77K average) + two-sided execution (233 buy-to-sell ratio tilts bullish). Stays liquid, rotates fast. Edge looks like: spot when the market reprices after first-quarter data or unexpected lineups, fade retail panic on both sides.
PROOF
Best trade grabbed $724K on Clippers vs. Hawks (December 2025). That's a 9x single pop. But then the worst trade — Suns vs. Thunder — torched $793K. That's bigger than the win. Total volume sitting at $37.7M tells you this isn't a $500 account playing around; this is someone moving real liquidity and eating slippage. Win rate holding 53.5% across 75 trades means edge is thin, razor-thin. One bad week of weather or injury news wipes months of grinding.
EDGE
Here's the uncomfortable truth: darkrider11 has no statistical edge at 53.5%. That's basically a coin flip with fees. The real edge is risk management theater — they've closed 71 positions, still holding 4 open. They got out $304K net (total withdrawals minus deposits), which is discipline. But they also ate a $793K single loss that rivals their entire annual profit. That's not edge. That's luck followed by a variance event. The Polymarket leaderboard is full of 53% win rate traders who vanish after one month of bad luck.
NOW
Portfolio value $8.37K sitting against $312K lifetime PnL. Four open positions active. Trades running 2x per day still — they haven't stopped, which means either confidence or tilt. The risk here isn't the strategy; it's that one more Suns vs. Thunder-sized blowup erases six months of work. Polymarket arbitrage this isn't. Prediction market skill this is, but skill with a ceiling: you're fighting the sharpest money in sports betting. Not everyone survives the next drawdown.
whaleRisk: medium