john-snows-knight
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john-snows-knight is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$11.8K PnL, $531.2K total volume, a 55.0% win rate, and activity across 21 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
This account is actually painful to look at. Opened the wallet, expected a disciplined operator based on the name — found a diversified gambler with -$11,783 in PnL spread across 22 trades on Polymarket.
john-snows-knight (rank 2,777,187) is a medium-risk diversified Polymarket trader with a 55% win rate. Despite winning more than half his bets, his total PnL sits at -$11,783 — proving that losing big once crushes 10 small wins. He trades across 21 markets at 1.4 trades per day, holding an average entry price of $0.39.
The strategy? Mix geopolitical and conflict-related events with broad market exposure. His edge hack is simple buy-sell discipline — he buys 4x more than he sells, which suggests he takes positions early and holds through volatility. But the numbers tell a darker story.
Proof is brutal. His best trade was a $21,124 win on the US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? prediction — a massive hit. Then he gave back almost all of it and more with a single $11.8K loss on Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?. That's not a strategy — that's a 2-bet portfolio that exploded on one wrong conviction.
What separates him from 99% of degens is risk tolerance, not math. Most retail traders quit after a -$45K drawdown. He's still here with $531K in volume. But that same tolerance is the killer — 55% win rate with -$11.8K PnL means his loss sizes are 2x larger than wins.
Currently has zero open positions. Either he stopped trading after the massive loss, or he's waiting for the next big event. For context: -2.22% ROI on a half-million in volume is brutal efficiency. The buy-sell ratio (4.02) suggests he's not scalping — he's conviction betting.
Track this — and every other Polymarket whale — on Predicts.guru to check Polymarket wallet analytics and see if the next trade recovers the PnL or deepens the hole. For a reality check on how Polymarket win rates can trick you, john-snows-knight is your case study.
diversifiedRisk: medium