PlanA-PlanB
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PlanA-PlanB is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$22 PnL, $438 total volume, a 81.1% win rate, and activity across 51 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
PlanA-PlanB (0x7fd18d13de2d76adf66f6ab90861fb959bf933e5) is a Polymarket trader who somehow posts an 81.1% win rate while sitting at -$21.51 total PnL — the most honest portrait of why raw accuracy means nothing without position sizing discipline.
The stats read like a koan. Rank 1,638,406. 51 trades across 51 different markets over 46 days at 1.1 trades per day. Win rate that would make most degens jealous: 81.08%. But the portfolio? Negative $21.51. This Polymarket trader is the textbook case of a specialist who nailed the prediction side and got absolutely ruined by the execution side.
Here's the edge hack that broke: PlanA-PlanB hunts micro-edges in crypto price action calls — tight entry discipline, tight market selection, refusing to chase. Average entry price sits at 0.73, meaning they buy dips and sell rallies with surgical precision. The best trade netted $12.86 on Ethereum price on October 23?. But then came the worst trade: -$10.47 on Ethereum above _ on October 24?. That spread tells the whole story. Low risk tolerance, small average trade size of $2.80 — this is someone betting like they're protecting capital while playing prediction markets like they're farming noise.
The real trap: 0 open positions sitting right now. Buy-sell ratio of 15.25 means they're way longer than they should be. This top Polymarket trader has the prediction market fundamentals down — 81% accuracy is genuinely strong — but swings between $12.86 wins and $10.47 losses when they should be compounding 5% gains consistently. Win rate without sizing discipline is just slow death with a smile.
PlanA-PlanB is live proof that Polymarket PnL doesn't care about your win rate. You can read price action better than 99% of retail and still go negative if you're betting the same $2.80 on a 50-50 variance flip as you are on your highest-confidence setups. Not everyone survives the drawdown between your edge materializing and your account size staying tiny.
conservativeRisk: low