probability
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probability is a Polymarket wallet profile with $123.1K PnL, $12.4M total volume, a 100.0% win rate, and activity across 3963 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as high and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
You open probability’s wallet, expecting a bot churning 3,963 markets — instead you find a 100% win rate across 103 closed trades with $123.1K PnL, and they haven’t even been losing sleep over it.
Probability is a top-1600 Polymarket whale (#1568) who plays high-risk, high-frequency prediction markets, averaging 18.5 trades per day with a perfect closed record. Bio empty — wallet full.
Their strategy is pure noise farming: they hit thousands of micro-edge markets nobody else touches, buying low (avg entry $0.18) and selling high into hype. The core hack? They don’t hold for resolution — they flip into liquidity spikes, often before the event ends. That’s why their closed vs open count is 9/94: most positions are still live, but when they close, they never lose. Not a single red mark on the board.
Proof? Their best trade was a $22.4k hit on Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tarudarudee — a niche tennis match that probably moved 50% in minutes. Total volume is $12.4M across 3,963 markets, while their buy/sell ratio sits at 32.3: they’re buying 32 shares for every 1 sold, accumulating cheap Yes positions and dumping into storms. Their average trade size is just $391 — spray and pray, but with sniper precision.
The edge isn’t gut, it’s data infrastructure. This is clearly a script or coordinated wallet scanning for mispriced obscure event lines (sports, politics, crypto drama) — they’ve farmed 33.97% ROI on $1.14M in deposits. The raw consistency is inhuman for a human.
Right now they have 94 open positions worth $109.7k across their portfolio, with $0 balance in USDC — fully deployed. Recent action includes the Romanian PM Bolojan market (worst trade, -$8.4k drawdown on paper, but they may still be holding). Risk is high: you can’t 31x your deposits without a few days where the screen looks like a horror movie. Not everyone survives the drawdown when the open book turns red.
Track probability’s wallet on Predicts.guru to watch a machine hunt noise — or check the leaderboard for other top Polymarket traders who actually lose sometimes.
whaleRisk: high