Mrage
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Mrage is a Polymarket wallet profile with $25.4K PnL, $363.9K total volume, a 37.8% win rate, and activity across 258 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
HOOK
Mrage [0x6f46821c6f3f395725e59009c19f1183d6181bba] Polymarket trader turned $15k into $40k on a 37.8% win rate — the kind of PnL math that shouldn't work until you realize he's farming the gaps everyone else ignores.
IDENTITY
Mrage ranks 4214 on Polymarket leaderboard. Diversified trader hitting 357 total trades across 258 markets. The profile: medium risk, 0.7 trades per day, $25.4k total PnL with 62% ROI on deposits. Not a whale by volume — $363k total — but the efficiency numbers flip the script.
STRATEGY
Mrage plays the arbitrage grind. He's buying underpriced temperature forecasts, election noise, and obscure geopolitical bets while retail chases headlines. His best trade? Nailed NYC max temp on December 17 for a $7.1k single-bet win. Core edge: he's not competing on prediction skill. He's competing on market inefficiency — stale odds, slow-moving correlations, the gaps that close in hours not days. Buy-sell ratio of 3.5 means he's accumulating positions others panic-sell into.
PROOF
The math checks out harder than it looks. On 357 closed positions, he's winning only 37% of the time. Yet he's grinding $25.4K profit. That only happens if your winners are bigger than your losers — and they are. Worst single loss: $1,039. Best single win: $7,139. That 7x asymmetry is the whole playbook. Average entry price hovers 0.53, meaning he's patient on buys, patient on sells, and lets conviction compound.
EDGE
37.8% win rate would destroy most traders. Mrage thrives because he sized correctly. Average trade $132 on a $15k bankroll means he never blew up. No FOMO, no revenge trading after the $25.4K profit. He's running a mechanical edge — temperature swings, geopolitical noise, sentiment whipsaws — and letting variance do the heavy lifting. Most degens chase binary momentum. He farms the boring stuff that actually works.
NOW
Zero open positions. All 357 trades closed. This screams discipline or caution — either he's sitting in stables waiting for the next inefficiency to scream, or he took profits and walked. Net negative transfers of $9.5k (more withdrawals than deposits) suggests he's extracted capital. The risk: this pace isn't sustainable if markets tighten. Prediction market liquidity is still fractured. One bad event cascade and the gaps disappear.
Track Mrage and compare against other Polymarket whales using a Polymarket wallet analytics tracker on Predicts.guru to see if the temperature play was repeatable or a one-time lucky arb.
diversifiedRisk: medium