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Trader Overview
bober-kurva (0x69ea43f5e12520cdce227962f2774e988fa720ce) Polymarket trader opened with $1,047 in deposits and somehow managed to run a 69% win rate while still down 54% — the kind of paradox that reveals pure strategy breakdown in real time.
Rank 74,548 conservative Polymarket trader who runs the numbers game across 577 different markets. 457 total trades, 450 closed positions, averaging roughly $1 per bet. The type who plays noise collection over conviction — high trade frequency, tiny position sizing, zero concentration risk. But here's where it gets weird: the win rate should print money. It doesn't.
The core edge is obvious on paper: bet small across everything, hit 69% of the time, compound upward. bober-kurva's best Polymarket trade ripped $62.43 on Bitcoin Up or Down — February 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET. Worst trade bled $57.99 on the exact same market 2.5 hours later. Same market, opposite luck. This is classic prediction market scalping: front-run micro-volatility, assume edge in rapid-fire micro-events, pray variance doesn't reverse. It did.
Here's the brutal math: 450 closed positions, 69% hit rate, but only $546 total PnL on $1,047 deposited. That's a 52% ROI on deposits that somehow reads as -54.63% ROI because the remaining open positions (7 still active) are underwater. The portfolio value is $86.21 USDC. Withdrawals were $388, which means bober-kurva took profits early, left the drawdown in the account, and watched it rot.
The true edge was never there. High win rate plus small position sizing equals false alpha in micro-markets where liquidity evaporates and two-way spreads blow out. A single bad week on the 5-minute Bitcoin Up or Down ladder erases months of 65-cent wins. The trader type screams discipline (conservative, medium risk, 2.5:1 buy-sell ratio), but discipline without edge is just slower bleeding. Not everyone survives the drawdown. bober-kurva's still sitting on 7 open positions with $86 left — either a lesson in micro-betting failure or the setup for a cleanup trade that never comes.
conservativeRisk: low