residual
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residual is a Polymarket wallet profile with $22.9K PnL, $642.0K total volume, a 71.2% win rate, and activity across 562 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
residual (0x58c028e7c41ba7ef2bde2142cd371cf491661c8e) Polymarket trader sits at 71.2% win rate across 577 trades but somehow buried in -43% ROI — the kind of paradox that separates noise collectors from real edge builders.
Rank 4364. Conservative type. Residual trades everything — 562 markets touched, 4 trades per day, tiny $244 average bet. The profile screams methodical: low risk appetite, high trade frequency, disciplined position sizing. Not a whale. Not a degen. A grinder.
Here's the edge hack: win rate this high on this volume usually means one thing — he's farming prediction markets like they're free IV crush. Residual doesn't swing for home runs. He enters at 0.77 average price (deep discount), takes small winners, exits fast. Buy-to-sell ratio of 3.4 signals he's betting YES more than NO, riding consensus drift upward on medium-conviction plays. The math: 71.2% win rate on 577 trades = 410 winners, 167 losers. Max single win was $6,185 on Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?. Max single loss clipped at -$2,883 on Elon tweet count noise. The guardrails hold.
But here's the problem: $22.9K PnL on $20,935 net deposits means 109% return on actual risk capital. Sounds clean until you see the full picture. Total portfolio value sits at $7,502. He's burned $10k withdrawing winners, likely early, likely often. The -43% ROI on gross deposits is what happens when you're right 71% of the time but betting too small to overcome fees, slippage, and the grind tax. Prediction markets don't reward consistency the way equities do — they reward conviction and size. Residual has conviction. He's just underweight.
Strategy works. Residual proves it daily: low-volatility market-picking, contrarian entry pricing, surgical position management. 12 open positions right now, 565 closed. Zero FOMO. But scaling this edge requires either bigger bets or a different market entirely. The Polymarket whales aren't built like this — they're built bigger, riskier, faster. Residual's a Polymarket trader succeeding at a strategy that fundamentally caps his upside. Not everyone survives optionality like that.
conservativeRisk: low