apiwat
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apiwat is a Polymarket wallet profile with $905 PnL, $238.9K total volume, a 100.0% win rate, and activity across 148 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
One wallet with 100% win rate and still down 55% on deposits — meet apiwat, the Polymarket trader who proves that even “perfect” record-keeping won’t save you from the math.
apiwat is ranked #82,970 on Polymarket, a conservative trader with 148 markets touched, 39 open positions, and a closed win rate of 100%%. Total PnL sits at $$904.5 across $238.9K in volume.
The strategy is almost painful in its simplicity: apiwat buys high-conviction YES shares deep in the money, with an average entry price of 0.93 — meaning he’s essentially paying 93 cents for a dollar of expected value. That’s not trading, that’s buying insurance at near-par on outcomes he’s certain about. The buy/sell ratio of 8.46 tells you he almost never sells, just holds until resolution or close.
Proof is in the asymmetry. His best trade was on “What price will Lighter hit in 2026? (2027-01-01)” for a $644 win — but his worst loss was $127 on crude oil futures. That’s a 5:1 reward-to-risk ratio in isolation, but the problem shows when you do a Polymarket wallet check: his net deposits are $73,022 with total withdrawals of only $24,985. The 100% win rate is real on closed trades — the $904.5 profit on deposits is just as real.
The edge is discipline mixed with survivable ignorance. apiwat doesn’t chase headlines or over-trade (2.1 trades/day). He identifies event-driven YES outcomes he thinks are inevitable (e.g., hard price targets on crypto assets), buys near 1.0, and waits. That’s not alpha — that’s market-making on your own conviction. But when he’s wrong, he holds and doesn’t cut, which explains the unrealized losses across 39 open positions.
Right now, apiwat has nearly $19K in open positions across 148 markets — mostly on long-dated crypto price targets and geopolitical events. The risk is real: if those deep ITM positions drift toward resolution without hitting, that pristine win rate takes a hit. But for now, he’s the guy with a perfect batting average who’s still broke — a fascinating case study for Polymarket wallet analytics.
Check this trader’s open positions and full Polymarket PnL breakdown on Predicts.guru — or find other top Polymarket traders who actually beat the market.
conservativeRisk: low