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Trader Overview
Arbguy turned $31.8M in volume into negative $195K — a lesson in what happens when size meets indifference to odds.
Arbguy | Rank #2,154,630 | Whale
This trader dumps massive capital into Polymarket without the returns to show for it. $31.8M traded. Zero win rate. No open positions. Just wreckage.
The data tells a grim story. A 0% win rate across unknown market count means every bet lost. Every single one. That's not variance — that's a systematic problem with either prediction ability or risk management. The wallet shows no best trade, no worst trade, no granular breakdown. Just a clean -$195.7K net loss on that enormous volume. For context: moving $31.8M through a prediction market typically requires high conviction bets or algorithmic activity. This looks like high conviction with terrible execution.
What separates Arbguy from typical retail losers is pure scale. Most underwater traders operate with thousands. This one operates with millions and still manages a flat zero win rate. The closed position count is unreported, but with $31.8M volume and -$195K loss, position sizing was either reckless or the markets were absurdly mispriced against their bias. Zero open positions now suggests they've either rage quit or learned to sit on the sideline.
No active positions means Arbguy is either dormant or fundamentally reconsidering approach. With a 0% hit rate and $31.8M spent learning that lesson, the next move matters — either they evolve their thesis framework or they remain a cautionary tale of capital meeting overconfidence. The wallet's silence is deafening.
whaleRisk: medium