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Trader Overview
Salwin (0x53293df2765f763875bb5af032ee2c7c5450e2f3) is a Polymarket trader who turned $120 into $1,279 in realized PnL while maintaining an 80% win rate across 194 trades — then somehow lost 95% of gains back to the house, a masterclass in how edge collapses under position sizing.
Conservative by designation, Salwin runs a high-volume grind: 46 trades per day across 185 different markets, averaging $114 per entry. The wallet screams "noise collector" — not chasing moonshots but playing prediction market arbitrage across sports, equities, and misc events. Win rate sits at 80.48%, which would be elite anywhere except Polymarket, where that same rate generated -95% ROI on deposits. The math breaks clean: he's right more often than wrong, but wrong bets blow up bigger than right ones pay.
Best trade pulled $157 on Genoa CFC vs. Torino FC - More Markets. Worst trade — Amazon stock movement — lost almost the same ($157 loss). The symmetry is brutal. This Polymarket trader's average trade size hovers at $114, meaning he's playing razor-margin bets where a single bad execution wipes six good ones. His buy-sell ratio of 1.28 hints he leans long prediction market entries, betting on resolution or sentiment shifts rather than selling into strength.
The real edge here? Discipline mixed with self-sabotage. Conservative risk rating, consistent 80% win rate, and active spread across 185 markets suggests Salwin understands diversification and doesn't FOMO. But trading 46 times daily on a $120 starting deposit means Polymarket fees alone are bleeding him dry. Each position compounds into the next with near-zero buffer. One bad day of drawdown cascades. His portfolio sits at $6 now — essentially liquidated.
What separates Salwin from typical Polymarket whales: he's honest about his size. No yolo swings, no hero trades. Just grinding 194 bets on prediction market noise. The danger is obvious: high-frequency small-cap trading on a prediction exchange looks free money until the fee structure and slippage math catch up. Still holding 29 open positions, which is optimistic or desperate depending on how you read it. Not everyone survives the drawdown, and Salwin's wallet says he didn't.
conservativeRisk: low