Oldfarm
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Oldfarm is a Polymarket wallet profile with $76 PnL, $14.4K total volume, a 56.6% win rate, and activity across 94 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
Oldfarm (Wallet 0x510b4b5093ce5fb297bfc03ac2d7c766051cda8d) Polymarket trader dumped $1.3K into 102 trades across 94 different markets and somehow turned it into a $76 win — then watched his portfolio crater 69% in the process.
Oldfarm is a Polymarket whale hunter chasing breadcrumbs. Ranked outside the top 220K, this trader operates as a diversified generalist hitting everything from Apple stock predictions to niche outcomes, 1.6 trades per day. Win rate sits at a respectable 56.6% — better than coin flip odds — but the math doesn't lie: -68.99% ROI on deposits tells the real story. Started with $1,322 total capital, now sitting on $410 portfolio value with $76 in realized PnL. The contradiction screams loud.
Here's the edge hack: Oldfarm plays low-variance conviction bets on liquid, binary markets. Best trade pulled $45.45 on an Apple AAPL close prediction. Worst trade lost $44.41 on the same exact market category — nearly symmetric risk management, the kind of thing you see from someone following a mechanical system instead of chasing hype. Average entry price of 0.797 (near even odds) shows discipline avoiding long-shot degen plays. Buy-to-sell ratio of 0.896 indicates measured rebalancing, not panic selling into crashes.
But here's what separates Oldfarm from 99% Polymarket degens: the diversified play across 94 markets in ~60 days means this trader isn't conviction-maxing on single narratives. Instead he's farming volatility and noise across prediction market analytics data. Low risk level designation matches the pattern — 13 open positions, 89 closed, small average trade size of $14.60. This isn't a wallet that swings for moon shots.
The brutal reality check: -69% ROI means Oldfarm is technically underwater, even with a 56.6% win rate. Prediction market strategy only survives if your winners exceed your losers by enough margin to beat the rake. Losses of $44 against wins of $45 don't cut it when you're playing 102 hands. The portfolio still holds value because total deposits exceed the bleeding, but the trajectory looks rough for continued scaling.
Current holdings show 13 active Polymarket positions open right now, $410 remaining capital. This wallet isn't dead but needs serious recalibration or bigger edge discovery. Check Predicts.guru to track Oldfarm's moves and see if this Polymarket wallet checker reveals a turn-around in the next 50 trades.
diversifiedRisk: low