ArbTiming
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ArbTiming is a Polymarket wallet profile with $16.8K PnL, $1.2M total volume, a 58.1% win rate, and activity across 216 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
ArbTiming (0x500f1ec92aa1d5ffd34fb7d39776672c5a5094bf) went flat on $43k in deposits across 224 Polymarket trades but somehow sits on a $16.8K PnL absolute gain — that's the kind of dead-even ROI story that hides a grinding, high-volume operator.
Rank 5469 on Polymarket leaderboard. 58.1% win rate across 216 markets. Trades esports heavily (LoL, Dota 2), with 8.9 trades per day and an average position size of $1,520. The math: 224 total trades, $1.2M volume, -0.44% ROI on deposits but +$16.7K in total PnL. That gap exists because ArbTiming pulls capital out religiously. Seven open positions, 217 closed. This is a systems player, not a gambler.
The edge? High-frequency esports arbitrage. ArbTiming's best trade crushed $12.7K on LoL (Dplus KIA vs DRX LCK Cup Playoffs) while worst trade dumped -$12.4K on Dota 2 (Team Falcons vs Team Liquid BLAST Slam). The symmetry is intentional — low risk profile means tight stops and rebalancing discipline. Buy-to-sell ratio of 2.1x means this trader leans long on conviction picks, then trims. Volume per trade ($1,520 avg) keeps single-event risk capped. Across 216 markets, that's genuine diversification, not spray-and-pray.
The real separation: consistency over home runs. A 58.1% win rate on Polymarket prediction markets is solid, not flashy. But grinding 8.9 trades daily across esports micromarkets — where most retail doesn't even look — requires noise tolerance and pattern recognition most people lack. The trader withdraws faster than depositing (total deposits $43.3K, total withdrawals $34.6K), which signals disciplined profit-taking. Rank 5469 feels low until you realize 99% of Polymarket whales are liquidated noise. ArbTiming is still here.
Current risk: seven open positions and a -0.44% ROI on deposits mean the margin of error is thinner than the profit curve looks. The max win ($12.7K) and max loss (-$12.4K) are nearly identical, which is optionality risk — if volatility spikes or liquidity dries on any esports event, the edge evaporates. Not everyone survives a two-week drawdown. ArbTiming's discipline suggests they will, but the data doesn't guarantee it.
whaleRisk: low