0x4C7d43a6e5CA58B281626E0dd6126C512d667A1f-1762605098411
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0x4C7d43a6e5CA58B281626E0dd6126C512d667A1f-1762605098411 is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$3.1K PnL, $1.1M total volume, a 95.1% win rate, and activity across 2485 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
HOOK
0x4C7d43a6e5CA58B281626E0dd6126C512d667A1f Polymarket trader runs 2,496 trades with a 95.1% win rate — yet sits at -$3.1K PnL, a masterclass in how even perfect execution can crater under wrong market conditions.
IDENTITY
Rank 2.3M in the Polymarket ecosystem but absolutely brutal as a case study. This is a whale by volume ($1.14M traded), hitting 13.2 trades per day across 2,483 different markets. Win rate at 96.65% would be career-ending bragging rights anywhere else. But the math? Doesn't lie. Total ROI: -0.27%.
STRATEGY
This trader is essentially running a high-frequency noise-collection playbook on Bitcoin Up or Down markets — hyper-specific 15-minute window bets. Entry strategy built on averaging into absurdly high probability micro-moves (avg entry price 0.98, basically betting on coin flips after they've already landed halfway). The edge hack is pure volume and speed: execute so many small bets that variance should mathematically flatten. Except it didn't.
PROOF
Best single trade pulled $495 on a Bitcoin micro-move in January. Worst single hit -$900.697 in February — a single loss that wipes nearly two weeks of gains. Across 450 closed positions, that avg trade size hovers at $370.87, which means even tiny slippage or exchange fees compound into a bleed. The portfolio value now shows $8.01 remaining, and 6 open positions still active, meaning this trader is doubling down trying to recover.
EDGE THAT KILLS
The catastrophic lesson here: win rate is not PnL. 96.66% accuracy on $370 bets doesn't scale when the 3.34% losses are $900+ each. The buy/sell ratio of 34.24 shows lopsided directional bias — all bets stacked one way. This is what happens when you confuse "probability of being right" with "probability of profit." The infrastructure is there (speed, discipline, capital), but the risk management is inverted. Every single day at 13.2 trades, you're exposed to that one tail event.
NOW
Still grinding with 6 open positions, still chasing recovery mode. Low risk designation looks generous when you're -0.27% ROI with that trade count — that's not low risk, that's "everything is fine until the drawdown" risk. This wallet is a live warning: perfect execution on bad odds is just slower bankruptcy.
Check other Polymarket whale wallets on Predicts.guru to see how the best traders actually manage position sizing and drawdown protection.
whaleRisk: low