0x4aFC86332D3137893e2c2C4eEF91a12C9e8Df01c-1764597580156
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0x4aFC86332D3137893e2c2C4eEF91a12C9e8Df01c-1764597580156 is a Polymarket wallet profile with $17.4K PnL, $363.8K total volume, a 86.0% win rate, and activity across 105 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
HOOK
0x4aFC86332D3137893e2c2C4eEF91a12C9e8Df01c Polymarket trader pulled $17.3K pure profit from $14K deposits on a conservative 86% win rate — then withdrew $25.7K total and walked away up $11.7K net, the exact opposite of every degen who compounds into dust.
IDENTITY
Rank 5697. Conservative operator. 106 total trades across 105 markets, mostly sports betting (Bayern Munich arbitrage is their bread and butter). 86% Polymarket win rate. Low risk profile flagged across the board. This is not a whale. This is a discipline case study.
STRATEGY
Small position size discipline — average trade $1,608, entry price dead center at 0.90 odds. They're farming high-probability noise in sports markets, hitting 1.2 trades per day, staying small, and crucially, they take money off the table instead of re-risking it. The edge: know when you won and disappear. Most Polymarket traders on the leaderboard chase the next 10x. This person cashed out.
PROOF
Best trade on Bayern vs Augsburg netted $3,336 in a single rip. Worst trade on the same market dumped -$1,600. That 2:1 win-to-loss ratio on identical matchups tells the real story — they're reading the same events differently each time, which means they're not guessing, they're calculating. $17.4K profit on Polymarket equals 95.9% ROI on deposits. 102 closed positions, 4 still open. Net withdrawals of $11.7K mean they already cashed most of this.
EDGE
One brutal thing separates this Polymarket trader from 99% of prediction market degenerates: position sizing that matches risk tolerance, not ego. Average entry at 0.90 means they're hunting underpriced probability, not lottery tickets. 3.94 buy-to-sell ratio suggests they're mostly backing favored outcomes, then exiting cleanly. The real edge is psychological — they hit their number and left. Most traders see $17K and think "now I can 50x it." This person sees it and thinks "time to withdraw." Low risk level isn't boring. It's profitable.
NOW
Portfolio value sits at $1,757 USDC (mostly in those 5 open positions). Activity is slowing — 1.2 trades per day on a 90+ day sample suggests they're already scaling down or moved capital elsewhere. Risk caveat: small sample in sports betting can look hot then ice cold fast. One brutal drawdown on a single sport or event and the 86% win rate vaporizes. But this trader already proved they won't wait to find out — they cashed.
conservativeRisk: low