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Trader Overview
TGbotvev (0x4852abe54b776ff3c5f1ff3786c1c4ca41e22da9) is a Polymarket trader who runs the numbers like a machine but can't seem to crack the code — 70% win rate, 238 total trades, negative $59 PnL across 224 markets. The evolution of a prediction markets player who knows exactly how to be right and still go broke.
Conservative by classification, TGbotvev trades like someone studying for a test they'll never pass. 16.6 trades per day across esports, crypto, and niche events tells you this isn't passive money — it's active grind. The best trade hit $5.33 on Counter-Strike: Monte vs fnatic (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs, but the worst trade bled $4 on Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET. The asymmetry is brutal: right more often than wrong, still underwater.
Here's where it gets interesting. A 70% Polymarket win rate should print money. Instead, TGbotvev's 1.67% negative ROI screams position sizing gone wrong. Average trade sits at $2.29, buy-to-sell ratio of 2.28 means heavy accumulation patterns — retail pile-in vibes, not exit discipline. Portfolio value sits at $14.38 against 59 open positions. The evolution shows a trader learning the hardest lesson: being right on direction isn't winning at prediction markets. Timing, liquidity, and the ability to actually exit when you're profitable matters more.
Risk level sits low, but the data tells a different story. Scattered into 224 different markets, TGbotvev is doing the opposite of what top Polymarket traders do — he's chasing breadth instead of depth. Spreading edge that thin turns into variance. 179 closed positions with modest wins but the paper cuts add up. This is the evolution of someone who understands prediction markets conceptually but hasn't debugged their actual execution.
Current state: still grinding, still learning. Not everyone survives the gap between being right and being profitable. TGbotvev's profile is the template for why 70% prediction accuracy doesn't equal positive Polymarket PnL.
conservativeRisk: medium