gravia-testing
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gravia-testing is a Polymarket wallet profile with $42 PnL, $2.7K total volume, a 77.1% win rate, and activity across 85 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
HOOK: gravia-testing Polymarket trader burned through $273 in deposits to land $42.1 profit on 84 trades across 85 markets — 77.1% win rate masks a -61.7% ROI that screams one thing: tiny edge, high-frequency chop racing prediction market noise.
IDENTITY: Rank 298,364. Conservative trader type. Averaging 0.7 trades per day with 14 open positions still running. The wallet reads like someone testing bot logic or noise collection strategies — spread thin across 85 different markets with $7.34 average bet size.
STRATEGY: gravia-testing hunts ultra-short timeframe Bitcoin volatility (best trade: the January 3 4:00-4:15PM ET spike for +$12). Buy-sell ratio of 2.95 reveals the core hack — buying dips way more than selling rallies, then grinding exits on any tick up. Conservative risk management keeps single losses capped around -$25, but volume per bet stays micro. This is the evolution of retail degens: not "one big bet," but 84 small ones hoping paper cuts add up.
PROOF: Out of 84 trades, 65 closed winners (77.1% win rate). Yet the math doesn't work — $2.7K total volume, $42.1 profit means 1.53% gross return on dollars moved, before fees. The wallet deployed $273.58 in deposits, never withdrew, and sits at $104.78 portfolio value. Best trade pulled $12, worst trade bled -$26 — asymmetric risk where downside hits 2x harder than upside.
EDGE: There is none. The real edge here is discipline, not prediction. Low-risk position sizing, consistent 0.7 daily trades, and no revenge betting saved this wallet from total wipeout. Most retail chases headlines and blows up on one market; gravia-testing diversified across 85 and lived to fight another day. But spreading that thin on Polymarket prediction market analytics means grinding noise, not reading signal.
NOW: 14 open positions still sitting, 85 markets closed. Portfolio value is $104.78 on total deposits of $273 — you're down 62% on capital. The win rate looks clean until you check Polymarket wallet analytics and realize high frequency + small sizing = transaction cost death spiral. One or two rough weeks and this wallet goes dark.
Want to track edge like this? Check gravia-testing's next 20 trades on Predicts.guru and see if the pattern holds — or if the evolution just becomes another cautionary tale.
conservativeRisk: low