moss.
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moss. is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$46 PnL, $3.6K total volume, a 28.6% win rate, and activity across 22 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
moss. (0x3d0b7aa823f917a1c897365f22cc31c5fb4710cb) Polymarket trader burned through $121 in deposits to land at negative $46 in 8.8 days, turning a 28.6% win rate into a masterclass in how raw prediction market edge doesn't exist when you're chasing Toronto weather like it's insider info.
Rank 1.9M. Diversified trader, 22 total markets, 2.5 trades per day. Medium risk. The portfolio value sits at $74.16 USDC after bleeding $167 in realized losses — every single close has been a lesson in why retail prediction markets are designed to humble you.
Strategy is dead simple: spray deposits across uncorrelated micro-markets (weather, niche temperatures) and pray the variance gods reward frequency over edge. Hit Highest temperature in Toronto on March 16? for $46 loss, then immediately got humbled by Highest temperature in Toronto on March 26? at negative $84.62, a swing that screams "no edge, just noise." Buy-sell ratio of 3.25 suggests he's betting more than he's exiting — classic trap. Average entry price of $0.527 shows he's catching falling knives, hoping weather forecasts are wrong.
Edge here? There is none. Win rate of 28.57% on Polymarket with an ROI of negative 38.97% is the exact inverse of what separates whale wallets from this one. No niche mastery, no infrastructure advantage, no discipline on position sizing (avg trade $15.26 is reckless given total deposit). The one open position remaining is the last hope — and statistically, it won't save the downswing.
Currently holding 1 open trade out of 22 markets entered, with zero withdrawals ever attempted. Not everyone survives the sequence of bad variance, and moss. hasn't yet. The pattern is pure amateur: hunt volatility, get crushed, double down on unrelated markets.
Track this wallet on Predicts.guru to watch the real-time tutorial in how prediction market analytics separates the 28% winners from the 72% grinders.
diversifiedRisk: medium