Tibay
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Tibay is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$52 PnL, $6.4K total volume, a 64.0% win rate, and activity across 280 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader overview
Opened this wallet expecting a whale — saw a 64% win rate and a PNL that says "not quite." That's the reality of a small-stakes conservative grind: Tibay (0x2f8b5ae3d3a70757d691e6d34774ef87874031d0) Polymarket trader is proof that anyone can pull up a Polymarket wallet checker and feel like a genius — until they check the actual PnL.
Tibay sits at rank #2,376,746 with a total PnL of -$52 and an ROI of -0.82%. Needs no introduction — just 51 trades, 280 markets touched, and a win rate of 64% that sounds good until you realize the math doesn't forgive tiny edges.
Strategy is weirdly disciplined: buys at an average entry price of ~0.99 — meaning he's scooping up almost-certain outcomes and flipping them for crumbs. The best trade? Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? — netting just $0.38. The worst? A $52 loss on another NYC temperature market Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 20?. Yeah.
This is pure noise farming. Tibay isn't predicting anything — he's using a Polymarket wallet analytics tool to realize that buying 99-cent contracts 5x more often than selling is a strategy for people who hate losing but love going nowhere. Most of his 50 closed positions are sub-$1 swings.
Edge? There is none. The "edge" is that he avoids the catastrophic tail risk that kills most degens — his max single loss is $0.04. That's not risk management, that's fear.
Right now: one open position, portfolio value of $4.98, and a buy/sell ratio of 5x. That's a grind toward zero that makes a 9-to-5 look exciting.
Track this wallet on Predicts.guru — or better yet, check out the Polymarket leaderboard for someone who actually knows how to make money.
conservativeRisk: low