4-12
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4-12 is a Polymarket wallet profile with $4.7K PnL, $304.6K total volume, a 62.1% win rate, and activity across 5781 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
You open the wallet, expected a degen whale, saw a bot that’s fired 5,494 trades and is still down -83% on deposits. 4-12 is a Polymarket trader who turned $5,790 into $8.88 in net value — the brutal math of high-frequency noise farming at scale.
4-12 (#23804) is a crypto_bot trader, almost exclusively trading 5-minute binary Bitcoin up/down markets. 5,781 markets traded. 142.7 trades per day. This is pure mechanical grind — zero alpha, zero edge, zero swing for the fences.
The strategy is spray-and-pray on micro-timeframes. 62.1% win rate sounds elite until you realize the average trade size is under $10 and the max single win is just $66.92. The bot wins often but loses bigger when it’s wrong — that -18.29 max loss in the Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET market is the killer. A 2:1 buy-to-sell ratio means it’s consistently buying calls and getting run over by the house spread on 5-minute candles.
What separates 4-12 from 99% of retail degens is discipline. No panic, no chasing narratives — just raw volume. But here’s the skepticism: a Polymarket wallet checker reveals this is a bot that statistically cannot win. The math on micro-timeframe markets with 1-2 cent spreads is brutal — 62.1% win rate with avg win ~$12 and avg loss ~$10 means breakeven needs a 62.1% win rate. He’s under by almost 2%.
Currently: 1 open position, portfolio at $8.88. The cash is gone. This is a bot that grinds until the deposit dust is gone. Not everyone survives the drawdown.
Check Polymarket wallet analytics on Predicts.guru if you want to see other top Polymarket traders who actually make the math work — 4-12 is a cautionary tale of volume without edge.
crypto botRisk: low