icarusc
Loading wallet statistics...
icarusc is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$538 PnL, $21.5K total volume, a 76.9% win rate, and activity across 16 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
icarusc (0x246ed59a887460ce548aec3ef2842bb28c14ebf2) is a Polymarket trader who flipped a single $674 sports bet into proof that even 76.9% win rate can't save you from math.
Low-volume sniper playing Polymarket's sports markets with surgical precision — 16 total trades across soccer, EPL, and niche matchups. The edge looks clean on paper: entered positions at 0.92 average price, caught a massive $674.60 winner on Villarreal vs. Elche, locked in 13 closed trades with seven winners. Win rate screams competence. Reality screams different story.
Here's where the numbers flip cold: -$538.15 total PnL on -2.5% ROI despite hitting 76.92% Polymarket win rate. That's not luck variance — that's position sizing eating an edge alive. Average trade sat at $587, but that single best trade ($538.2 loss) masked 12 other positions that bled friction. Worst loss was only -$61.66, which shows discipline, but small wins compounding into zero doesn't require big drawdowns. It requires betting wrong on bet size relative to conviction.
The wallet screams sniper mentality: three open positions still live, low-risk profile locked in, buying way more than selling (15:1 buy-sell ratio means heavy conviction bets, not hedging). icarusc isn't scalping noise. He's picking spots on European soccer markets where casual Polymarket degenerates pile money on name recognition. That's real edge. The execution just didn't translate to PnL.
What separates 99% of Polymarket traders from him: discipline actually existed here. Max single loss at -$61 shows position sizing rules. Most retail traders on the leaderboard blow accounts on one bad bet. icarusc stayed small, stayed focused, stayed alive. The problem? Small + focused + 76.9% win rate = still underwater when average profit ($52 per winner rough math) gets crushed by the fee structure nobody talks about.
Currently holding three open positions in soccer markets. Risk level stays low. The real lesson isn't that he's bad — it's that Polymarket's margin of edge is tighter than most think. Win rate north of 75% should print money. When it doesn't, you're fighting the house, the slippage, and the bid-ask spread simultaneously. Not everyone survives that fight, even with perfect discipline.
sniperRisk: low