YTMD Polymarket Wallet
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YTMD is a Polymarket wallet profile with $5.8K PnL, $62.8K total volume, a 85.1% win rate, and activity across 95 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
yuantouhajimi Polymarket trader deposited $21.29, turned it into $1,351 PnL, then somehow ended up down 74% ROI — the most baffling win-rate-mastery-meets-portfolio-collapse story in prediction markets right now.
yuantouhajimi ranks outside the top 50k but owns one of the sharpest edges in niche weather prediction. Conservative trader, 81.8% win rate across 35 total trades on Polymarket. Low risk appetite. The numbers scream discipline until you hit the ROI column and everything breaks.
Here's the edge: this wallet farms Shanghai temperature markets like they're free money. Opened with just $21.29. Hit a $215.60 best trade on Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 24? — massive multiplier on micro capital. Trades 33 different markets but keeps returning to weather data nobody else bothers parsing. Average entry at 0.76 odds, 3:1 buy-to-sell ratio. Slow grind: 0.5 trades per day. This is not a degen scalper. This is a patient specialist.
But here's where it gets weird. The $1,351 PnL is real. The 81.8% win rate on Polymarket is elite. Yet somehow the portfolio tanked to negative 74% ROI on deposits. That means: early wins funded later, larger bets. Worst trade only lost $8.73, so it's not one blown position. This looks like death by a thousand cuts — compounding small losses, or reinvesting and catching a drawdown nobody sees coming.
The risk reveal: yuantouhajimi proved you can beat Polymarket on pure analytical edge (weather markets, contrarian positioning, conservative sizing) but still end up underwater when you scale without risk management. $1.3k in absolute gains feels like proof of concept. The ROI tells you reinvestment without guardrails destroyed it. Max single loss sits at only $8.73, which means positions stayed small, but the sheer volume of activity — 35 closed trades, total volume $17k — suggests overtrading on limited capital. One bad streak in weather prediction and the whole thesis breaks.
Right now: zero open positions. Wallet likely dormant or in recovery mode. This is the crash after the spark. Check this wallet on Predicts.guru to see if yuantouhajimi bounces back or stays sidelined.
diversifiedRisk: medium