cmcbrown Polymarket Wallet
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cmcbrown is a Polymarket wallet profile with $3.8K PnL, $77.0K total volume, a 72.7% win rate, and activity across 152 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
cmcbrown Polymarket trader turned $518 into $3,782 in roughly two weeks by doing what 99% of retail refuses to do: treating weather prediction markets like a data collection game instead of a gambling slot machine.
Name's cmcbrown. Rank 26,848 on Polymarket. Diversified trader type. 72.73% win rate across 51 total trades spanning 152 different markets. That's not luck—that's signal grinding. Trades per day hitting 33.8 during the run, which means this account either has insane time commitment or infrastructure reading price action fast.
The edge hack here is glacially simple: weather prediction markets are noise factories. cmcbrown identified that temperature forecasts in Chinese cities—Chengdu, Chongqing—trade with wild inefficiency because retail never touches them, bots don't cover them, and Western traders sleep through Asian market hours. Buy into the volatility, let the real number (actual temperature) print, exit with the spread. His best single trade pulled $626.91 PnL on a Chengdu temperature prediction. Worst loss was only $86.04. That asymmetry matters.
The real separation: buy/sell ratio sits at 2.81, meaning cmcbrown enters on weakness and scales out into strength. Average entry price hovers at 0.559—he's buying dips, not chasing candles like degens do. Total volume of $77,040 across that portfolio shows he's not afraid to size, but average trade is only $29.88, which screams discipline and risk management. Started with $518.76 in deposits, pulled out $2,879.05, and still holds $2.25 in open positions. That's the trader who doesn't get trapped.
Current state: one open position, 50 closed. Win rate compression hasn't hit yet, which means either the run continues or the next drawdown is overdue—both are real. Medium risk level reflects that he's not all-in on one thesis; he's diversified across 152 markets, which hedges conviction but dilutes upside.
Check this wallet's evolution on Predicts.guru to see if weather arbitrage scales or if the Polymarket leaderboard eats another hot run once volume arrives.
diversifiedRisk: medium