amundsen11
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amundsen11 is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$8.2K PnL, $772.6K total volume, a 70.0% win rate, and activity across 10 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
amundsen11 Polymarket trader dumped $150K into 10 markets over weeks, hit a 70% win rate, then got absolutely nuked to -$8,172 total PnL — classic case of being right often but catastrophically wrong once.
Name is amundsen11. Rank 2.4M, conservative trader type, low risk profile on paper. Ten trades across ten different markets, averaging $15.8K per position. Trades roughly 1.5 times per day. The wallet screams "I research before I buy" — except when it doesn't.
Strategy looks surgical at first: selective entry, patient hold, mostly buys over sells (6.2:1 buy/sell ratio). Win rate of 70% should print money. Then you look at the worst trade and realize why prediction markets aren't poker. That US forces enter Iran by..? position? Lost $17.6K. His best trade, "US/Israel strikes Iran on...?" netted $3.8K. One catastrophic loss versus six profitable trades — that's the entire bankroll gone.
Proof lives in the asymmetry. amundsen11 deposited exactly $149,954.76, never withdrew once, and currently holds $0 balance. Ten closed positions, zero open. The math: 7 wins averaging modest gains, 3 losses including one black swan that swallowed all profit and principle. Average entry price hovers at 0.945 — he's buying conviction near even odds, not chasing 5% shots. That's not degen behavior. That's disciplined capital allocation meeting a tail risk event.
Edge here? None, honestly. Conservative trader type with low risk profile should never have 17K single loss exposure on a geopolitical binary. The wallet shows someone who understands position sizing (ten separate bets, diversified markets) but completely whiffed on tail hedging. Win rate doesn't matter if one loss is 2.3x your average winning trade. Prediction markets punish overconfidence in your thesis no matter how "smart" your process looks.
Currently holding zero positions. That's either forced by zero balance or a hard lesson learned. Either way, amundsen11 is a textbook example of "look at closed PnL before you trust the win rate" — 70% accuracy on Polymarket can still delete your stack if you're wrong about conviction sizing.
Check Predicts.guru to watch other Polymarket traders and see how many share this exact drawdown pattern.
conservativeRisk: low