Alejanro Polymarket Wallet
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Alejanro is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$12 PnL, $916 total volume, a 76.5% win rate, and activity across 189 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as low and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
Alejanro is a Polymarket trader sitting at rank 1682390 with a 76.5% win rate across 189 trades — but his wallet tells the real story: down $11.6K on $916 volume, negative 1.27% ROI, and a max single loss of $13.2K that wiped out months of edge. Conservative trader stuck in the worst place on the prediction market leaderboard.
The profile reads like someone who discovered a micro edge, scaled it wrong, and got punished for it. 189 total markets traded, 189 open positions counted — that's basically one trade per market with 108 still sitting open. Conservative risk label, 1.4 trades per day, avg position size of $1.79. This is volume — but it's not conviction. His buy-to-sell ratio of 12.2x tells you he's long-biased, holding way more positions than he closes. That's not strategy. That's hope masquerading as patience.
Here's the jaw-dropper: Alejanro has a 76.54% win rate on Polymarket yet still lost $11.6K. His best single trade netted $2.08 on a micro Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET micro-window. His worst trade cost him $13.2K on Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 11AM ET — a blow that explains the death spiral. Even a 76% win rate doesn't survive when your losing positions blow up 6x bigger than your winners.
The edge here was supposed to be noise arbitrage — catch micro price discrepancies in Bitcoin intraday movement, scalp the bid-ask spread, rinse and repeat. That works until one unforeseen event or fat-finger liquidation hits and you're down the deposit. Portfolio value sits at $203, open positions at 108 — he's living on the edge of volatility, praying for mean reversion on underwater bets.
This is what evolution looks like on Polymarket: the moment your win rate stops mattering because your risk sizing doesn't match your edge. Conservative label or not, Alejanro learned that holding 108 positions with $1.79 avg entry on Polymarket is just Russian roulette with probabilities. Not everyone survives the drawdown.
Check Alejanro's wallet on Predicts.guru to see how this low-conviction, high-frequency strategy resolves in real time.
conservativeRisk: low