algfilt
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algfilt is a Polymarket wallet profile with $20.6K PnL, $120.6K total volume, a 86.5% win rate, and activity across 62 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
HOOK
algfilt Polymarket trader turned $5.1K into $20.6K PnL while sitting at 86.5% win rate across 72 trades—then somehow ROI went negative. The math breaks different when you actually look inside.
IDENTITY
algfilt. Rank 5501 on the Polymarket leaderboard. Diversified trader, 62 markets touched, 33 open positions bleeding slow. Type: the guy who chases breadth over depth and it's starting to show.
STRATEGY
algfilt spreads capital thin across niche prediction markets—Winter Games, NHL, noise plays nobody else farms. One brutal Curling trade netted $3,382 (that's the portfolio right there). But then the ice melted. Averaging $109 per entry at 0.51 odds, hitting 1.7 trades daily. The edge? Finding semi-liquid markets where retail panic-sells before you do. The problem? You need perfect exit timing or you're just holding bags.
PROOF
$20.6K absolute PnL across 62 different Polymarket markets. Win rate sits at 86.48%—genuinely top-tier conversion. But here's the jaw-drop: -17.68% ROI on deposits. That curling win paid for months of bleeding. One worst trade dropped -$1,230 on a Penguins-Golden Knights matchup. Current portfolio value $4,212 with 33 open positions still live. The Polymarket wallet analytics tell the real story: high accuracy, wrong position sizing, wrong exit discipline.
EDGE
algfilt found a real edge in semi-liquid niche markets where spread-aware retail mis-prices. 86.5% win rate proves the prediction accuracy isn't luck. But here's the kill: he scaled position size on winners, not on evidence, and never learned to exit early when momentum shifted. Diversified across 62 markets means zero concentration risk but also zero focus. It's the classic evolution trap—got good at picking winners, forgot how to survive the drawdown.
NOW
72 positions open, portfolio down from deposits despite $20K in PnL sitting somewhere. Trades daily at a 1.7/day clip. The risk is obvious: with 33 live bets across niche markets, one liquidity shock or one bad event week wipes the month. Not everyone survives the drawdown phase, and algfilt's walking that line between "lucky picker" and "must-understand-sizing."
Track algfilt and similar diversified strategy traders on Predicts.guru's Polymarket wallet checker to see how real win rates die to position sizing.
diversifiedRisk: medium