0x8623...66d4
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0x8623...66d4 is a Polymarket wallet profile with -$222 PnL, $18.5K total volume, a 100.0% win rate, and activity across 2105 markets. This page summarizes the wallet's trading record, risk signal, market activity, and generated trader overview. Risk is shown as medium and should be interpreted as an analytics signal, not financial advice.
Trader Overview
0x86238ea6cf7a4cc453dbb9674f2096a97e2666d4 Polymarket trader just hit breakeven on pure volume — 21 trades, 100% win rate, but the portfolio tells the real story: -$222.5 PnL on $18.5K total volume in what looks like two weeks of pure chaos trading.
This is a medium-risk diversified account that found the hardest lesson in prediction markets: speed doesn't equal edge. The wallet scalps 14.5 trades per day across 21 different markets, which reads like someone who learned Polymarket exists on Monday and started screaming buy-sell by Wednesday. Best trade netted $1.56 on Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET. Worst trade cost -$0.73 on a Reya FDV moonshot. That's volatility without conviction.
What actually separates this from pure retail donkey behavior: the buy-sell ratio of 4 suggests they're not just panic-selling every position that dips. They hold. That's either patience or paralysis, depends who you ask. The average entry price of 0.447 means they chase lower odds constantly — betting coins that trade 55-45 instead of finding real mispricings. The math here screams "retail learns about implied probability five minutes before the trade closes."
Current state: 0 open positions across a $30 portfolio with $0 sitting in USDC. This trader is all-in on the chaos, which either means conviction or no risk management. Portfolio heat is max when every market you're in can swing 20-30% on a random news snippet. The 100% win rate means you're literally flipping a coin that costs gas fees to flip.
Here's where it gets interesting though: they're not stopping. 14.5 trades daily says this wallet is building pattern recognition in real time or learning what not to do before real money shows up. The diversified approach across 2,105 markets in two weeks shows they're trying to find category edge instead of going all-in on one thesis. That's anti-degen behavior hiding inside degen volume.
Risk caveat: -$0.30 on paper, but the volatility profile suggests a 2-3 bad days away from -50% if the math gets unlucky. Portfolio value at $30 means this is learning capital, not serious capital.
Track this wallet on Predicts.guru to watch if the trade frequency drops and the win rate climbs — that's the real tell of whether they're finding edge or just building expensive experience.
sniperRisk: medium